A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
